A CAUSAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATING PUBLIC TRANSIT RIDERSHIP USING CENSUS DATA

This paper applies a causal perspective to the study of travel behavior through the use of path analysis. The study develops a model of public transit use for work trips in the Raleigh and Durham, North Carolina Standard Metropolitan Statistical areas. The model is estimated with data from the 1970 Census of Population and Housing. It is successful in explaining 85 percent of the variance in use of public transportation. Auto ownership is the most influential variable determining use of public transportation. However, the causal analysis demonstrates that auto ownership is itself determined to a large extent by other variables in the model, particularly percent black, median income, and level of transit service. Therefore, these variables have a substantial indirect effect on transit use mediated through auto ownership. /Author/

  • Corporate Authors:

    Planning Transport Associates, Incorporated

    P.O. Box 4824, Duke Station
    Durham, NC  United States  27706
  • Authors:
    • DAJANI, J S
    • Sullivan, D A
  • Publication Date: 1976

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00141072
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 6 1981 12:00AM