STOCHASTIC CONSIDERATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM MODELING

A mesocale stochastic model of thunderstorm activity is developed to simulate the hourly development of both air mass and squall-line storms. This modeling technique is based on Poisson occurring thunderstorms, Markov cloud formation and movement, and rainfall-producing convective cells, and is intended to provide a more complete theoretical understanding of the thunderstorm process. The rain cells from according to a prescribed probabilitic model within clouds on an hourly basis, with a relatively high likelihood of generation of a new cell in the vicinity of a previous cell. The cells are described by a center magnitude with a Gumbel distribution and an exponential or power law decay formula. The stochastic model is programmed for simulation in a fairly general program that allows many different variables in the thunderstorm process to be either prescribed, or simulated from appropriate probability distributions. /Author/

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 865-879
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00139581
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: ASCE #12231
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 6 1976 12:00AM