STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE

A simulation model for predicting the performance of highway pavement is described. The primary modes of distress considered are deformation and cracking. The factors contributing to pavement distress are divided into three categories: (a) physical properties and pavement geometry, (b) vehicular load, and (c) environmental conditions. The damage formulation is handled in two steps. The first step yields the stress and strain fields within the system, which are then used as inputs to the second step. The second step yields damage components or limiting responses. Based on the expected values of the damage component, the road serviceability load after a given time period can be predicted by using a relationship similar to that of AASHO serviceability. The model, then, estimates the change in serviceability and associated reliability of the system due to accumulation of damage. After the changes in serviceability and reliability are determined, several possible maintenance strategies can be examined. An essential part of the model is a relationship among maintenance, change in reliability, and the increase in expected life. Thus for each maintenance strategy there is an associated reliability-life expectancy. /Author/

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: pp 56-72
  • Monograph Title: Role of probability and statistics in the structural analysis of pavements
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00139552
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309024897
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Sep 16 1976 12:00AM