Asphalt pavements in Canada and the northern United States are subject to thermal cracking. Often, highway agencies require a forecast of pavement performance rating, which is highly sensitive to the intensity of cracking and is conducted at the design phase or during service. Two failure modes of thermal cracking exist: low-temperature cracking and thermal-fatigue cracking. Low-temperature cracking is caused by accumulated thermal stresses in the pavement layer during cold winters or spring thaws. Thermal-fatigue cracking is caused by daily cyclic thermal loading. For three decades, classical probabilistic methods have been applied to pavement design systems, including thermal cracking predictions. Advances in reliability analysis has demonstrated the inconsistencies in classical reliability methods and has mandated the revision of current design procedures. This paper presents an improved reliability model for predicting thermal cracking. The new model considers the variability in the component design variables and the correlation between the two failure modes. The findings are verified using Monte Carlo simulation, and the sensitivity of the predicted intensity of cracking to various design variables is examined.


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  • Accession Number: 00726129
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: Sep 28 1996 12:00AM