UNCERTAINTY IN ASSESSING BENEFITS, COSTS, AND FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY OF ITS PROJECTS, PROGRAMS, AND SERVICES

One of the most difficult aspects of assessing the benefits, costs, and financial feasibility of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies is that, for the most part, there are few clear market signals available to guide investment decisions. Many ITS technologies offer information and/or services that have not previously been available for firms or households to buy at any price, much less available on the open market where willingness to pay could be assessed by producers. An additional complication is that the development of products and services is subject to improvements, which can leave early adopters holding obsolete and incompatible technology. A producer can exploit fear of such obsolescence to discourage households and firms from purchasing technology until that firm's product or service is available. Further, firms and households might refrain from making purchase decisions in anticipation of further improvements. Finally, households and firms sometimes adapt their behavior and activities to take advantage of the benefits offered by a new technology, or to avoid the disadvantages of the technology. Such behavior is often quite difficult to predict. This paper examines the range of approaches available for assessing benefits, costs, and the financial feasibility of ITS projects and programs under such conditions of uncertainty, including benefit-cost analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, public participation, and markets. It uses examples from experience with electronic toll and traffic management (ETTM) technologies. It offers an alternative flexible framework for such assessments, and outlines how such a framework can be supplied.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Five volumes of papers and one volume of abstracts comprise the published set of conference materials.
  • Corporate Authors:

    VERTIS

    TORANOMOM 34 MORI BUILDING 1-25-5
    TORANOMON, MINATOKU, TOKYO 105  Japan 
  • Authors:
    • Gifford, J L
  • Conference:
  • Publication Date: 1995-11

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: p. 2434

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00726040
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Volume 5
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Sep 10 1996 12:00AM