The aim of this paper is to describe some of the issues arising in the development and application of predictive accident models. Section 2 describes the series of major empirical junction accident studies carried out in the UK by the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL). Section 3 considers the most appropriate form of statistical model to use in order to establish robust relationships between accidents, flows and design. Section 4 then gives some illustrations of such models. Section 5 deals with the estimation of the uncertainty which should be attached to the predictions, while section 6 describes the application of the models at both an individual site level and in a network-wide context. Lastly, section 7 discusses some of the remaining contentious issues surrounding the interpretation and use of predictive models and work which is planned to investigate some of these issues further.


  • English

Media Info

  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: p. 211-225
  • Serial:
    • VTI Conferens
    • Publisher: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)
    • ISSN: 0347-6049

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00723250
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: No. 4A, Part 2
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 9 1996 12:00AM