A MODEL TO PREDICT ACCIDENT FREQUENCY ON RURAL SINGLE CARRIAGEWAY ROADS

This paper describes the development and assessment of a model for predicting accident frequency on rural single carriageway roads. A data base describing the accident frequency, layout, geometric design and traffic characteristics of 500 km sub-sections of single carriageway road has been assembled. The data base provided a wide range of values for each of the variables which were included. The microscopic simulation program OSCA was used to estimate measures of traffic performance for each of the 516 subsections in the data base. Alternative models were evaluated using Microsoft Excel and GLIM. A multiple linear regression model for accident frequency was found to provide the best fit to the data with the independent variables explaining 42 percent of the variation in accident frequency.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03476049
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  Glenthorne House, Hammersmith Grove
  London W6OL9,   England 
• Authors:
  • HUNT, J
  • Mahdi, T
• Conference:
  • Proceedings of the Conference: Road Safety in Europe and Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP)
  • Location: Prague, Czech Republic
  • Date: 1995-9-20 to 1995-9-22
• Publication Date: 1996-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 56-71
• Serial:
  • VTI Conferens
  • Publisher: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)
  • ISSN: 0347-6049

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crashes; Multiple regression analysis; Rural areas; Single lane traffic; Traffic characteristics; Traffic lanes; Traffic models
• Old TRIS Terms: Multiple regression; Rural accidents
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Vehicles and Equipment; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00723240
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: No. 4A, Part 2
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 8 1996 12:00AM