FORECASTING TELECOMMUTING

In this paper the authors explore four alternative methodologies for forecasting telecommuting and discuss the kinds of data that must be collected before these methodologies can be applied. The first approach is trend extrapolation, using curves of technological substitution. Sufficient data are currently available to produce forecasts, albeit highly uncertain forecasts, using this approach. However, even with better data, this approach does not address underlying factors and trends that will affect the future of telecommuting. As a result, the authors explore three additional approaches that should produce more reliable forecasts but which require new data and knowledge about telecommuting: analyzing the characteristics of telecommuters in contrast to nontelecommuters, analyzing factors affecting the individual choice to telecommute, and incorporating telecommuting into traditional transportation forecasting models.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00494488
• Corporate Authors:

  Martinus Nijhoff Publishers

  Kluwer Academic Pub Group, Distribution Center, P.O. Box 322
  3300 AH Dordrecht,   Netherlands 
• Authors:
  • Handy, S L
  • Mokhtarian, P L
• Publication Date: 1996-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 163-190
• Serial:
  • Transportation (Netherlands)
  • Volume: 23
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers
  • ISSN: 0049-4488

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Mathematical models; Methodology; Technological forecasting; Telecommuting; Transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Transportation models
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00721200
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 8 1996 12:00AM