This project is a joint Canadian Strategic Highway Research Program (C-SHRP) and a New Brunswick Department of Transportation (NBDOT) application of Bayesian statistical modeling methodology. The objective of this project was to demonstrate to NBDOT an application for Bayesian modeling and not specifically to produce definitive predictive performance models ready for design application. Originally three models were considered to predict the rutting performance of asphalt concrete (AC) overlay methods used for AC pavement rehabilitation. The overlay methods modeled were thin overlay, thick overlay with padding, and thick overlay with milling. An important aspect of using Bayesian Statistics in this project was to supplement actual data with expert judgement. Judgement on the rutting performance of each type of overlay was solicited from pavement experts within NBDOT. Field data specific to each model was collected and databases were developed. This field data supplemented with the expert judgement were then analyzed using the XLBayes software developed through Canadian-Long Term Pavement Performance (C-LTPP) Project of C-SHRP to give first generation models. After analyzing the first generation models, a second iteration was performed using just two models, thick and thin overlays. The thick overlay with milling and the thick overlay with padding models were combined to give just a thick overlay model. Mathematical model equations were developed for thin and thick overlay models for the second iteration. It was concluded that Bayesian methodology is a viable tool and has application for NBDOT. It demonstrated that it has the potential to assist in optimizing rehabilitation design of overlays. Several recommendations for future modeling came out of the study, both in reference to further development of the rutting model and in other areas where expert judgement could be combined with data to get earlier results. (A)

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Canadian Strategic Highway Research Program

    2323 St Laurent Boulevard
    Ottawa, Ontario K1G 4J8,   Canada 
  • Publication Date: 1995-10


  • English

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00726430
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transportation Association of Canada (TAC)
  • ISBN: 1-55187-042-8
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: Oct 28 1996 12:00AM