The Manitoba Department of Highways & Transportation (MDHT) attempted to model and predict the immediate and long term maximum Benkelman Beam Rebound (BBR), or deflection, of a flexible pavement after an asphaltic concrete (AC) overlay. The purpose of the application was to verify the current rehabilitation design procedure for Manitoba, and to quantify the significant contributing variables and their impacts on the design. A two-stage model to predict BBR was developed and analysed using the Bayesian approach. Model 1 was the first stage initiation model to predict the maximum BBR immediately after an overlay. The second stage, Model 2, was the propagation model to predict the rebound over time. The XLBAYES software was used to develop coefficients and statistical parameters for the combination of C-SHRP & SHRP field data and expert data in the models. Sensitivity analyses were performed and compared for each model, and each expert, to determine the magnitude and effect of the independent variables on the dependent rebound variable. Two iterations were performed on each model. The Prior, Data, and Posterior models generated from the analysis generally had good statistical parameters, and the sensitivity analysis clearly indicated the importance and magnitude of the impacts of each variable on the BBR prediction. The Bayesian analysis was also successful in incorporating expert judgement information with limited field data to produce useable first models. (A)

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Canadian Strategic Highway Research Program

    2323 St Laurent Boulevard
    Ottawa, Ontario K1G 4J8,   Canada 
  • Authors:
  • Publication Date: 1995-10


  • English

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00726427
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transportation Association of Canada (TAC)
  • ISBN: 1-55187-040-1
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: Oct 28 1996 12:00AM