THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODELS TO PREDICT PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE IN FROST CONDITIONS - JOINT C-SHRP/QUEBEC BAYESIAN APPLICATION

With freezing indices ranging from 1000 to over 2000 degrees C day and frost penetration reaching up to 3 metres under pavement surface, frost action has always been a major concern for pavement engineers in the province of Quebec (Canada). Faced with increasing needs and limited technical tools to cope with frost action on pavements, the Ministry of transportation has undertaken a major study with two primary objectives. The first is to revisit the whole approach of pavement design in frost conditions and to develop a rational pavement design method that deals with frost action. The second is to evaluate alternative techniques to protect pavement against the detrimental effects of frost action. In order to support these two objectives, a specific pavement monitoring program has been developed. This paper presents the work done to develop first generation performance models using Bayesian statistics. This work was sponsored in part by the C-SHRP under the auspices of the "Joint C-SHRP/Agency Bayesian applications" project. The performance models will be the heart of the new design approach. Bayesian statistics compensate for the lack of good quality well controlled data needed for conventional statistical analysis of pavement performance, by providing a means whereby prior information (old databases and/or expert judgment) can be used to supplement the field data. The "XLBayes" statistical package, developed under the Canadian Strategic Highway Research Program (C_SHRP), will be used in the development of four distress specific models that will eventually feed the design model with information on pavement performance in freezing and thawing conditions. (A)

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Canadian Strategic Highway Research Program

    2323 St Laurent Boulevard
    Ottawa, Ontario K1G 4J8,   Canada 
  • Authors:
    • Dore, G
  • Publication Date: 1995-10

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: 22 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00726423
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transportation Association of Canada (TAC)
  • ISBN: 1-55187-038-X
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: Oct 28 1996 12:00AM