A STATIC ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL COST TO THE WORLD'S AIRLINES OF THE CAEP/3 NOISE AND EMISSIONS PROPOSALS. VOLUME 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Campbell Aviation Group (CAG) research team has analyzed the likely impacts on the world airlines industry for each noise and emissions stringency proposal of the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP/3), and for each combination of noise and emissions stringency. The economic and financial impact analyses in this study deal with the net concept; that is, CAG's financial impact results portray the differences in costs to the airlines between two scenarios: (a) that CAEP/3 is adopted (in some form) at the end of 1995, and (b) that CAEP/3 is not adopted but current restrictive trends continue. All of the financial impact values in the cash flow model have been prepared separately for passenger/combi aircraft and freighters. CAG's approach to the analysis was to develop two independent models based on different conceptual foundations. Both models produced very similar results. The first model is highly detailed and rigorourous in its analytical design. The key premise is that airports will restrict the operations of aircraft that do not comply with new noise and/or emissions standards; that this restrictive behavior will increase in scope over the next 20 years; and that the utilization of non-compliant aircraft will steadily decline. The second method involved detailed interviews with financial institutions in Europe and the U.S. Results of both model analyses suggest that the CAEP/3 proposals would have profound and life threatening impact on the airline industry. In addition, the study results are an underestimation, since only current airlines were examined, and not the future fleet of aircraft. CAG believes that the true cost to the airlines, if it was based on the future fleet, could be several times the impacts shown in this study. This document is the executive summary for the study.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Prepared with assistance from Airline Capital Associates and KPMG Peat Marwick Thorne. Prepared for the Air Transport Association with cooperation from the International Air Transport Association.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Campbell Aviation Group, Incorporated

    700 North Fairfax Street, Suite 502
    Alexandria, VA  United States  22314
  • Publication Date: 1995-3-20

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: 14 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00724557
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 11 1996 12:00AM