PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR TURNKEY CONSTRUCTION: A CASE STUDY

This study employed two case study participants: 1) Tinker Air Force Base Extend Alternate Runway, and 2) the Maryland Mass Transit Authority (MTA) Central Light Rail Phase II project, to demonstrate how the probabilistic method, an innovative statistical technique, can be helpful in performing risk analysis for turnkey capital transit projects. Impetus for this study was provided by the Federal Transit Administration's Turnkey Demonstration Program. Study data required to perform a probabilistic analysis was unavailable for the Tinker Extend Alternate Runway project; a complete probabilistic risk analysis was performed for the MTA Phase II project, for cost and schedule. Construction cost line-items and activity durations were "ranged", and @Risk software was used to perform a Monte Carlo simulation for the cost and schedule data. A triangular distribution was used to model the input variables. Results show that the Phase II project is "low risk", i.e., project cost will be exceeded. The study observes that for the turnkey construction alternative probabilistic risk analysis is best performed during the bid phase of the project. Schedule is a key variable for turnkey risk; and Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) and project oversight are critical decisions for turnkey contracting.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Abacus Technology Corporation

    5454 Wisconsin Avenue, NW, Suite 1100
    Chevy Chase, MD  United States  20815

    Federal Transit Administration

    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Authors:
    • Chaney, V
    • Derr, K
    • Rawoof, B
    • Weissman, J
    • Touran, A
  • Publication Date: 1996-6

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: 146 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00724295
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Federal Transit Administration
  • Report/Paper Numbers: FTA-MD-26-7001-96-2
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Aug 3 1996 12:00AM