THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HIGHWAY GEOMETRICS, TRAFFIC RELATED ELEMENTS, AND MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS. FINAL REPORT

Poisson and negative binomial regression techniques were used as a means to predict accidents on the basis of highway geometrics and traffic related factors. For a particular highway section the overall number of accidents was predicted using both Poisson and negative binomial distributions. The predictions were then compared with actual accident statistics. Both methods use a log-linear function to ensure that accident prediction is always non-negative. The primary data sources were the Washington State Department of Transportation's Transportation Information and Planning Support database for geometric and traffic information and the Washington State Patrol's accident database for accident information. The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the model coefficients. The results suggested that horizontal curvature, daily traffic, speed, number of lanes, and tangent length between curves are significantly correlated with accident occurrence. The results indicated that if accident data are dispersed relative to the mean, negative binomial regression is the most appropriate method of analysis.

  • Record URL:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Washington State Transportation Center

    University of Washington, 1107 NE 45th Street, Suite 535
    Seattle, WA  United States  98105

    Washington State Department of Transportation

    Transportation Building, 310 Maple Park Avenue SE, P.O. Box 47300
    Olympia, WA  United States  98504-7300

    Federal Highway Administration

    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Authors:
    • Milton, J C
    • MANNERING, F L
  • Publication Date: 1996-3

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 84 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00723823
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: WA-RD 403.1
  • Contract Numbers: T9903, Task 26
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI, USDOT, STATEDOT
  • Created Date: Jul 12 1996 12:00AM