PRECURSOR SYSTEMS ANALYSES OF AUTOMATED HIGHWAY SYSTEMS. ACTIVITY AREA P: COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS. VOLUME V: ANALYSIS OF AUTOMATED HIGHWAY SYSTEM RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES

This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • California PATH Program. Authored by: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
  • Corporate Authors:

    University of California, Berkeley

    Institute of Transportation Studies, Richmond Field Station, 1301 South 46th Street
    Richmond, CA  United States  94804

    Federal Highway Administration

    Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, 6300 Georgetown Pike
    McLean, VA  United States  22101
  • Publication Date: 1995-6

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: 56 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00722534
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Federal Highway Administration
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Resource Materials, FHWA-RD-95-159, Final Report
  • Contract Numbers: DTFH61-93-C-00199
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Jun 13 1996 12:00AM