PRECURSOR SYSTEMS ANALYSES OF AUTOMATED HIGHWAY SYSTEMS. ACTIVITY AREA P: COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS. VOLUME V: ANALYSIS OF AUTOMATED HIGHWAY SYSTEM RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES
This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.
- California PATH Program. Authored by: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
University of California, BerkeleyInstitute of Transportation Studies, Richmond Field Station, 1301 South 46th Street
Richmond, CA United States 94804
Federal Highway AdministrationTurner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, 6300 Georgetown Pike
McLean, VA United States 22101
- Publication Date: 1995-6
- Pagination: 56 p.
- TRT Terms: Alternatives analysis; Automated highway systems; Benefit cost analysis; Costs; Deployment; Distributions (Statistics); Forecasting; Highway capacity; Highways; Market development; Market penetration; Risk analysis; Uncertainty; Vehicles
- Old TRIS Terms: Precursor systems
- Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
- Accession Number: 00722534
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: Federal Highway Administration
- Report/Paper Numbers: Resource Materials, FHWA-RD-95-159, Final Report
- Contract Numbers: DTFH61-93-C-00199
- Files: TRIS, USDOT
- Created Date: Jun 13 1996 12:00AM