AGGREGATE VEHICLE TRAVEL FORECASTING MODEL
This report describes a model for forecasting total U.S. highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-term module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.
- Record URL:
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Corporate Authors:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
P. O. Box 2008
Oak Ridge, TN United States 37831Federal Highway Administration
Office of Policy Development, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC United States 20590 -
Authors:
- Greene, D L
- Chin, S-M
- Gibson, R
- Publication Date: 1995-5
Language
- English
Media Info
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 74 p.
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Automobiles by type; Demographics; Econometric models; Estimates; Forecasting; Freight traffic; Fuels; Gross national product; Highway transportation; Load factor; Passenger vehicles; Personal computers; Time duration; Travel
- Uncontrolled Terms: Long term; Short term; Vehicle type
- Subject Areas: Energy; Freight Transportation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00722093
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: ORNL-6872
- Files: TRIS, USDOT
- Created Date: May 6 1996 12:00AM