METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR AIR-TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

An important determinant of airport planning, design, and operations is air-transport demand forecasting. Errors in forecasting can be costly--underestimating can lead to inadequate facilities causing congestion and delay, and overestimating may create economic problems due to underuse. Therefore, airport planners must develop reliable forecasting models and understand the limitations in their forecasting accuracy. The aim of this paper is to examine the estimating capability and forecasting accuracy of air-travel demand models. Specifically, an analytical framework for developing econometric models is presented and postfact analysis is employed to test the accuracy of the models. Statistical data describing air-travel demand patterns for two major international airports (Frankfurt and Miami International Airports) are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models. Also, the effect of external factors, such as deregulation of the air-transport industry, is explored. The results indicate that simple models with few independent variables perform as well as more complex and costly models, and that external factors have a pronounced effect on air-travel demand.

Language

  • English

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00719285
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 17 1996 12:00AM