In this paper, the authors provide a framework for quantitative risk assessment in hazardous materials transport. They first outline a basic model where population centers are approximated by points on a plane with the assumption that in the case of an incident all residents in a population center will experience the same consequences. Different versions of this model have been used by other authors in the literature. This model may be valid if the hazardous materials route goes by small population centers. Then they extend this basic model to assess risks of shipping hazardous materials through large population centers that cannot be modeled as single points on a plane. In the extended model, large population centers are treated as two-dimensional objects on the plane, which allows for a more accurate treatment of consequences than the basic model. To the extent of the authors' knowledge, the extended model is novel. The authors provide numerical examples for both the basic and the extended models, and finish by discussing limitations of the suggested risk assessment framework.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Society for Risk Analysis

    8000 Westpark Drive, Suite 130
    McLean, VA  United States  22102
  • Authors:
    • Erkut, E
    • Verter, V
  • Publication Date: 1995-5


  • English

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  • Accession Number: 00719200
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 6 1996 12:00AM