Virtual models are complex forecasting techniques that appear useful in policy analysis but dissolve when examined closely. The increasing use of virtual models in many aspects of transportation analysis is described and seriously challenged. Numerous examples of virtual models now in use in transportation are noted, the reasons for their increasing use are suggested, and the pitfalls in this trend are identified. Practical suggestions are made for increasing professional modeling ethics, instilling honesty in forecasting, and in reducing our dependence on such tools. Models should be used only as useful assistants for policy setting, but should not be revered as infallible or used as fiats.


  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: p. 73-80
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00716621
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 13 1996 12:00AM