WHITHER FORECASTS? MINISTERS GRAPPLE WITH REPLACEMENT FOR THE 1989 TRAFFIC PREDICTIONS

This article discusses possible changes in the approach of the Department of Transport (DoT) to traffic prediction. Although the DoT has vigorously defended its 1989 National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF), it has begun a major review of forecasting techniques, by creating an independent advisory panel and commissioning various research projects. This review is likely to introduce significant new factors, such as congestion and land-use charges, into the forecasting procedure. Until recently, forecasts essentially extrapolated past trends, and assumed traffic to be largely determined by gross domestic product (GDP) and car ownership. There are now doubts about the prediction of detailed GDP and car ownership levels, and congestion has greatly reduced traffic growth in many cities. Disaggregation of forecasts into effects for different types of area is another key issue. Land use is affected by social and technological trends as well as by planning policy.

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    LOCAL TRANSPORT TODAY

    QUADRANT HOUSE, 250 KENNINGTON LANE
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  • Authors:
    • STRINGER, B
  • Publication Date: 1995-10-12

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: p. 12-13
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00716016
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: Jan 31 1996 12:00AM