PROBABILISTIC DESIGN OF A 15" FLEXIBLE RISER

At present flexible risers are designed according to permissible stresses design format. This results in a very inconsistent safety level for different riser applications, failure modes and riser configurations. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the common engineering design approach with it's simple safety format, based on a deterministic permissible utilisation factor, corresponds to the failure probability derived from a more sophisticated probability based stochastic design procedure. In this paper the behaviour of a 15" flexible gas export riser at 330m water depth is investigated using probabilistic methods. Both the environmental load variables and the riser capacity parameters are assigned appropriate uncertainties and distributions. The results show that there is inconsistency present between safety factor and probability of failure.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • OMAE 1995, 14th Intl Conf on Offshore Mechanics & Arctic Engng; 18-22 June 1995; Copenhagen, Denmark. Sponsored by ASME et al. Procs. Publ by ASME, ISBN 0-7918-1308-8. Vol II, p 279 [7 p, 21 ref, 4 tab, 5 fig]
  • Authors:
    • Hanson, T D
    • Nilsen, A U
  • Publication Date: 1995

Language

  • English

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00718772
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: British Maritime Technology
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 27 1996 12:00AM