RETURN PERIODS AND ENCOUNTER PROBABILITIES

A procedure has been developed to determine the probability of a ship encountering a severe storm. The encounter probability has been formulated in terms of the return period of the storm as well as the operation profile of the ship and the wave statistics along its route. The procedure has been applied to four ship routes, two in the Atlantic and two in the Pacific Ocean. The results showed that the ship's route has a large impact on the encounter probability. The effect of changes in the degree of correlation between wave conditions in the different zones of a route was found to be relatively unimportant. The procedure is equally applicable to offshore structures. It is believed that the encounter probability offers a much better basis to derive storm design criteria than the usually used return periods of a storm.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Applied Ocean Research, v 17 n 2, 1995, p 127 [10 p, 5 ref, 6 tab, 19 fig]
• Authors:
  • Mansour, A E
  • Preston, D B
• Publication Date: 1995

Language

• English

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Probability; Routes; Storms
• Old TRIS Terms: Wave data
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Marine Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00718704
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: British Maritime Technology
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 27 1996 12:00AM