DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTIES. THE USE OF RISK ANALYSIS IN DECISION MAKING

By means of a few practical examples, certain principle issues of decision-making under uncertainty are discussed. The uncertainties in question are those of unwanted events; failures, accidents, - involving loss of something valuable, such as loss of life, loss of property, - damage to environment. It is essential that the decision problem is identified and understood, usually as the choice between alternatives. A special case is the decision whether to implement a specific risk reducing measure or not. Knowing the decision problems, the decision criterion will be either: an optimisation criterion, for instance the minimisation of a life cycle cost function where expected loss caused by failures, accidents is part of the cost function, or, a limit value of risk, as often used for risk of life. There are two basic problems related to decisions where risk is involved: one associated with the different "incommensurate" values, like value of life versus values of asset and a second one associated with the problem that values and losses are shared, somehow unevenly, between different parties or interest groups, like the company, the employee, the owners/licensee, the third-party or neighbour, the society etc. The risk acceptance criteria as established by a company will have to accommodate these basic problems. One precondition for approaching the decision problem in this way is that risk can be predicted, and that the result of this prediction is available prior to the stage when the decision will have to be taken. In practical cases, when the decision/choice to be made is known, the decision problem often turns out to be less complex than one might anticipate. This is illustrated by way of some practical cases.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • OMAE 1995, 14th Intl Conf on Offshore Mechanics & Arctic Engng; 18-22 June 1995; Copenhagen, Denmark. Sponsored by ASME et al. Procs. Publ by ASME, ISBN 0-7918-1308-8. Vol II, p 451 [6 p, 1 tab,]
  • Authors:
    • Tveit, O J
  • Publication Date: 1995

Language

  • English

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00718693
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: British Maritime Technology
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 27 1996 12:00AM