A joint industry project was established to develop a blowout risk prediction model to reflect the development within drilling practice in the North Sea over the last 10 years in combination with the statistical figures applied in the quantitative risk analysis. This paper describes one method developed to combine the practical operational experience with the quantitative statistical records. An extensive screening of blowout records from databases and interview session with oil companies operating departments has been performed. The blowout risk model was developed to enable the risk analyst to adjust a "default" blowout frequency to reflect a specific well operation. The adjustment covered the development related to equipment, operational procedures, management and frame conditions. The model has been applied successfully to a number of wells and the paper presents the principle behind the model as well as the practical approach in using the model.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • OMAE 1995, 14th Intl Conf on Offshore Mechanics & Arctic Engng; 18-22 June 1995; Copenhagen, Denmark. Sponsored by ASME et al. Procs. Publ by ASME, ISBN 0-7918-1308-8. Vol II, p 435 [7 p, 2 ref, 3 tab, 4 fig]
  • Authors:
    • Rosenberg, T H
    • Nielsen, T E
  • Publication Date: 1995


  • English

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00718678
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: British Maritime Technology
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 27 1996 12:00AM