QRA IN OFFSHORE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS: HOW SHALL WE IMPLEMENT AND EXPRESS UNCERTAINTIES IN THE RESULTS?

Since the Sleipner A gravity base structure sank in Gandsjorden in August 1991, offshore operators have adopted the Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) technique as a tool to identify high risk operations within their offshore construction projects. Application of the QRA methodology requires careful considerations with regard to the potential sources of uncertainty in the risk results. How shall the term "uncertainty" be understood and does the definition impact the probabilistic theory applied in the analysis? Issues related to how the uncertainties should be expressed and interpreted are discussed in this paper. Finally the risk results and recommendation of risk reducing measures should be considered and expressed with reference to the uncertainties, in methodology, risk modelling, estimates and input data. The paper also includes a discussion on how stringent the acceptance criteria are to be interpreted by the project management.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • OMAE 1995, 14th Intl Conf on Offshore Mechanics & Arctic Engng; 18-22 June 1995; Copenhagen, Denmark. Sponsored by ASME et al. Procs. Publ by ASME, ISBN 0-7918-1308-8. Vol II, p 417 [9 p, 15 ref]
  • Authors:
    • Nja, O
    • Aven, T
    • Gudmestad, O T
  • Publication Date: 1995

Language

  • English

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00718676
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: British Maritime Technology
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 27 1996 12:00AM