PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT METHOD OF SHIP (PART 1: ESTIMATION METHOD OF ENCOUNTER PROBABILITY)

For the probabilistic safety assessment of a ship it is necessary to estimate the collision probability of the assessed ship. To estimate the probability, the encounter probability with other ships in a dangerous situation must be estimated. The paper introduces an analytical method to estimate the encounter probability from a sailing ships density and the accuracy of the method is validated by simulation. The first stage of the method is to derive the probability of sailing ship density from the probability of appearing ships at the border of the gaming area. From the result the parameter (mean ship appearing ratio at the border) is related to (the sailing ship density). The second stage is to derive the encounter probability with other ships from . At this stage the encounter probability is related to . The fitness of the probabilistic density function obtained by this method are checked by 2 test using the results of the ship sailing simulation and the method is shown to be a satisfactory estimation method of encounter probability.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • J Soc Naval Arch Japan, v 177, June 1995, p 419 [9 p, 8 ref, 4 tab, 8 fig]
  • Authors:
    • Kaneko, F
  • Publication Date: 1995

Language

  • Japanese

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00717672
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: British Maritime Technology
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 4 1996 12:00AM