ANALYSIS OF AUTOMATED HIGHWAY SYSTEM RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES. VOLUME 5
This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgements of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.
- Sponsored by Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory7000 East Avenue
Livermore, CA United States 94550
- Sicherman, A
- Publication Date: 1994-10
- Pagination: 51 p.
- TRT Terms: Automated highway systems; Benefit cost analysis; Highway capacity; Market assessment; Probability theory; Risk analysis
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
- Accession Number: 00720932
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: UCRL-ID-121357
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: May 8 1996 12:00AM