THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERFORMANCE PREDICTION MODELS FOR VIRGINIA'S INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM - VOLUME II: MODEL DEVELOPMENT. FINAL REPORT

Performance prediction models are a key component of any well-designed pavement management system. This study used data compiled from condition surveys conducted annually on Virginia's pavement network to develop prediction models for the interstate system. The study is reported in two volumes. This volume, Volume II, describes the development and evaluation of the performance prediction models. An exploratory data analysis was first conducted to examine the data distribution, and to reveal the underlying relationships among the variables. "Robust" regression techniques were used to identify outlying observations that could adversely affect the regression analysis results. Stepwise regression was then used to select the significant predictors of deterioration. Different models were examined to identify the most suitable for fitting the data. The models were evaluated by checking their goodness-of-fit statistics and conducting a series of sensitivity analyses. To further assess the models' accuracy, their predictions were compared against field-observed values. An ANOVA test was run to compare the accuracy of two model forms and two model adjustment procedures. The developed models provided an adequate fit and generated predictions that conformed with accepted engineering judgement. Comparisons with field observations showed their accuracy to be quite reasonable even for long-range predictions. Finally, the ANOVA results indicated that no significant differences existed between the two model forms tested or between the two adjustment procedures.

• 
• Record URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/19442
• Corporate Authors:

  Virginia Transportation Research Council

  530 Edgemont Road
  Charlottesville, VA  United States  22903

  Virginia Department of Transportation

  1401 East Broad Street
  Richmond, VA  United States  23219

  Federal Highway Administration

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Sadek, Adel W
  • Freeman, T E
  • Demetsky, M J
• Publication Date: 1995-10

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 101 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Computer models; Condition surveys; Databases; Forecasting; Pavement management systems; Pavement performance; Performance
• Identifier Terms: Interstate Highway System
• Uncontrolled Terms: Performance prediction
• Geographic Terms: Virginia
• Subject Areas: Design; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways; I23: Properties of Road Surfaces;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00720220
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: FHWA/VTRC 95-R8, VTRC 95-R8
• Contract Numbers: 3087-020
• Files: NTL, TRIS, USDOT, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Apr 18 1996 12:00AM