INTERCITY RAIL RIDERSHIP FORECASTING AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN CALIFORNIA
This working paper addresses the question of the market potential for high-speed passenger rail service in California. Along with construction cost, forecast ridership is the second significant question asked about any proposed high-speed rail system. The first part of the paper focuses on the high-speed rail systems in Europe and Japan and the role of ridership forecasts played in the decision to build the original high-sped rail lines. The European and Japanese situation is then compared to the situation California faces today. The next part draws an analogy between the decision to construct the second generation rail transit system in the United States and the decision to construct high-speed rail in California. This part reviews criticism of rail transit ridership forecasting and examines the original Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) forecasts as an illustration of the difficulties involved in forcassting for new modes.
- Record URL:
2614 Dwight Way, 2nd Floor
Berkeley, CA United States 94720-1782
- Vaca, E
- Publication Date: 1993-5
- Pagination: 24 p.
- TRT Terms: Construction; Costs; Forecasting; High speed ground transportation; Railroad transportation; Ridership
- Uncontrolled Terms: Construction costs
- Subject Areas: Construction; Finance; Operations and Traffic Management; Public Transportation; Railroads;
- Accession Number: 00716328
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Feb 4 1996 12:00AM