INTERCITY RAIL RIDERSHIP FORECASTING AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN CALIFORNIA

This working paper addresses the question of the market potential for high-speed passenger rail service in California. Along with construction cost, forecast ridership is the second significant question asked about any proposed high-speed rail system. The first part of the paper focuses on the high-speed rail systems in Europe and Japan and the role of ridership forecasts played in the decision to build the original high-sped rail lines. The European and Japanese situation is then compared to the situation California faces today. The next part draws an analogy between the decision to construct the second generation rail transit system in the United States and the decision to construct high-speed rail in California. This part reviews criticism of rail transit ridership forecasting and examines the original Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) forecasts as an illustration of the difficulties involved in forcassting for new modes.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: 24 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00716328
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 4 1996 12:00AM