UNCERTAINTY IN THE NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM. II: ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

The Energy Information Administration is building the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)--a large-scale model of energy supply, demand, prices, and technologies that will be used for forecasting and analysis of energy markets. This is the second paper of two on characterizing the uncertainty present in key elements of the NEMS. The theory that supports the assessment procedures was described in the first paper and this paper presents the numerical results and analyses of the experiments. Method testing involved the three most important NEMS submodel types--linear optimization, econometric, and heuristic or balance equations. Results of using these uncertainty techniques on the Energy Information Administration's transportation sector demand and petroleum market models are presented.

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  • English

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  • Accession Number: 00714644
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 21 1995 12:00AM