THE SELF-FULFILLMENT OF LONG-RANGE TRANSPORTATION FORECASTS

This examination of the self-fulfilling concept in relation to its implications for the formulation and evaluation of public policy, defines the characteristics exist in the long-range planning process of any large public agency, and makes conjectures about possible implications of the existence of these self-affecting tendencies in the process by which public policy is formulated, evaluated and implemented. The conditions that must be satisfied before a forecast produced by a public agency can be expected to have a strong self-fulfillment tendency are defined and illustrated. These conditions have rarely been satisfied by urban land-use and transportation planning. However, if the mass media take a more active role in public agency forcasts, a stronger self-fulfillment tendency should be expected to develop. Long-range planners should try to identify the interest groups that are logically part of the causal chain, determine the extent to which these groups know of a believe in the forecasts, and monitor the actions of these groups to assess the self-fulfillment tendencies of their work. Planners should devise methods that could counter or enhance the self-fulfillment tendencies of their work.

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Eno Transportation Foundation

    1250 I Street, NW, Suite 750
    Washington, DC  United States  20005
  • Authors:
    • Schneider, J B
  • Publication Date: 1975-10

Media Info

  • Features: Figures;
  • Pagination: p. 555-569
  • Serial:
    • Traffic Quarterly
    • Volume: 29
    • Issue Number: 4
    • Publisher: Eno Transportation Foundation
    • ISSN: 0041-0713

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00131714
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 14 1976 12:00AM