ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS. NEW DIMENSIONS FOR FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY

The authors points out three major influences which have led to what he terms a financial cross-impact on technology that was previously ignored by technological forecasters. These influences are: (1) the end of the post-war explosion in financial support for technology; (2) the growing concern with ecological and other environmental impacts, resulting in the diversion of a proportion of research and development budgets to non-economic objectives; and (3) a realization that the earth's stock of natural resources is finite, thereby directing technological investment towards conservation and the search for substitutes. The author contends that the implications of these influences must be incorporated into current technological forecasting. Several examples are discussed to illustrate how such financial cross-impact data can be incorporated in the forecasting process. In conclusion, the author emphasizes that if technological forecasts are to be soundly based, current techniques must be modified to reflect a high degree of subjective judgement with respect to the level and direction of the future investment in technology.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    IPC (America) Incorporated

    205 East 42nd Street
    New York, NY  USA  10017
  • Authors:
    • Twiss, B
  • Publication Date: 1976-2

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: p. 52-63
  • Serial:
    • Futures
    • Volume: 8
    • Issue Number: 1
    • Publisher: Elsevier
    • ISSN: 0016-3287

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00131659
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 5 1976 12:00AM