PROJECTIONS OF MOTOR-VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS, DRIVER LICENSES AND MOTOR-FUEL CONSUMPTION TO 1990
The historic increases in vehicle registrations and motor- fuel consumption is examined, and the possible growth patterns that could occur through the next two decades is discussed in the light of the petroleum problem, environmental concerns, inflation, and other factors which are applying unusual pressures to the normal patterns. Associated statistics on driver licenses, vehicular travel, and the changes that are occurring in the driver mix, regarding age and sex (which may have some effect on the vehicle use picture) are also presented. Background data is presented regarding the availability of small cars, changes in vehicle technology, the availability and demand for fuel, and projections of driving age population and motor vehicle registrations. Using the estimated automobile registrations as a base, gasoline consumption is estimated using several assumptions. Trucks, buses, and licensed driver data are also discussed. The study found that the annual growth rate for motor vehicles of about 5 percent during the last 20 years is expected to reduce to 2.5 percent or less during the next 20 years. The number of compacts is expected to stabilize in 1990. The period to 1980 is expected to be critical for gasoline use. Alternative power supplies and more efficient systems are expected to ease the situation in the 1980's. The number of licensed drivers and number of registered vehicles are expected to equalize in the future.
- Presented at North American Gasoline Tax Conference, Northeast Region, Great Gorge, New Jersey, June 30-July 2, 1975.
Washington, DC USA 20590
- Liston, L L
- Publication Date: 1975-10-2
- Features: Figures; Tables;
- Pagination: 23 p.
- TRT Terms: Age; Buses; Driver licenses; Economic development; Forecasting; Fuel consumption; Gasoline; Gender; Motor vehicles; Policy; Registrations; Travel; Trucks
- Old TRIS Terms: Future policies; Projection
- Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Highways; Motor Carriers; Policy; Public Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Society;
- Accession Number: 00141064
- Record Type: Publication
- Contract Numbers: HPR-40
- Files: TRIS, USDOT
- Created Date: Oct 6 1976 12:00AM