METHODS OF PREDICTING LOCAL DEMAND FOR NEW RAPID TRANSIT SERVICES

Two models developed (by the Illinois Department of Transportation IDOT) to predict local travel demand as well as four alternative approaches (by the Chicago Transit Authority CTA), are summarized. All analyses emphasize empirical travel patterns and are formulated to predict future levels of ridership on new rapid transit lines based on actual demand levels on existing rapid transit facilities. In one IDOT method, a linear regression model was constructed to predict local ridership on a rapid transit line as a function of the population and employment densities of the line's service area. The second IDOT method expressed local ridership on a new rapid transit line as a function of diversion from parallel bus routes. The CTA methods were formulated to address the following: demand models for rail rapid transit system optimization study; treat branches of the same route as single lines; avoid the use of a systemwide proportion of local trips; and develop a relationship between existing and local ridership and population and employment with a degree of correlation which can be used to predict local trip generation on new lines.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Northeastern Illinois Regional Transportation Authority

    Planning and Development Department, P.O. Box 2858
    Chicago, IL  United States  60654
  • Authors:
    • Lee, I
    • Permut, H
  • Publication Date: 1975-12

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: 23 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00135936
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: TR-75-03
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 6 1981 12:00AM