POLICY SEARCH MODEL FOR EVALUATING FUTURE NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION STRATEGIES UNDER ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS
The future U.S. transportation system faces a host of stringent energy and environmental constraints in addition to the budgetary constraints of recent history. This paper discusses the development and runs of an interactive computer model used to project the state of the national transportation system into the future under a variety of such constraints and policy decisions. It is a policy search model designed to provide a rational basis for choice of national transportation policies. It uses linear programming to distribute passenger travel and freight shipments to the various modes which will make up the system of the future. The user can examine various growth, no-growth, and negative growth futures, in combination with different levels of energy availability and technology efficiency. It considers the level of utilization and service offered by over 40 alternative travel modes, including urban, suburban and intercity modes for both passengers and freight. Runs of the model have thus far been constrained only by economic, energy and land availability limitatins, but indicate that even if the future is pessimistic in terms of petroleum availability, the system can be structured to provide passenger and ton miles close to what it provided in 1970, but at reduced levels of service. In addition to its use in policy evaluation, the model can also be used as a teching tool, since it demonstrates the complex ramifications of seemingly simple policy decisions.
- Presented at the Intersociety Committee on Transportation, Technical Session on Resource/Energy Strategies, Atlanta, July 16, 1975.
Chicago Transit AuthorityMerchandise Mart Plaza, P.O. Box 3555
Chicago, IL USA 60654
- Bernard III, M J
- Schofer, J L
- Publication Date: 1975-7-16
- Features: Figures; Tables;
- Pagination: 50 p.
- TRT Terms: Energy; Environmental protection; Freight transportation; Level of service; Linear programming; Modal split; Passengers; Policy; Simulation; Transportation policy
- Old TRIS Terms: Future policies
- Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Energy; Environment; Freight Transportation; Highways; Passenger Transportation; Policy;
- Accession Number: 00133974
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Jun 23 1976 12:00AM