A TECHNICAL REVIEW OF RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHOD: DIAL-A-BUS IN SMALL URBAN AREAS

This report is a technical review of the method used by the New York State Department of Transportation to predict the potential ridership of the dial-a-bus service in small urban areas. The method was applied to the City of Oneonta (population: 16,000), New York, in early 1974. A follow-up survey was undertaken in that city in the fall of 1974--three months after the dial-a-bus transit service was in operation. Based on the information obtained from this survey, both the analytical basis and the predictive accuracy of the forecasting methodology are examined in this study by comparing the observed transit usage and also the after-service community sensitivity to fare policies with those predicted prior to the existence of the service. In addition, other aspects of the methodology and its application such as the adequacy of sample representation and the demand computation procedures are also examined from a critical viewpoint. Results of the study indicate that the method is sufficient in providing "ball park" estimates for the transit planner as it produces plausible prediction in terms of the overall system ridership. On the other hand, it is not a rigorous demand estimation tool at lower aggregation levels such as the subgroups stratified by traveller socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex, age) and trip purpose (e.g., work, shop). The study further indicates that the main reason for the unstable transit usage estimation at some of the sub-groups appears to be the inadequate sample representation of these sub-groups. Finally, a number of suggestions are offered concerning possible improvements of the methodology for future applications.

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 42 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00133496
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: RR 73
  • Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
  • Created Date: Jun 5 1981 12:00AM