The California Urban Futures model is the first in a new generation of metropolitan simulation models which replicate realistic urban growth patterns and the impacts of development policy at various levels of government. It projects population from the 'bottom-up', it allocates growth to sites based on development profitability, it realistically embodies the role of accessibility in the development process, and it is operated through the medium of geographic information systems. This paper is an explanation of the rationale of the model and the way it has been built in terms of its formal structure, its databases, its decision rules which reflect the development process, and its application to the San Francisco Bay Area where it has been used to evaluate the impact of a diverse set of development policies. The spatial database currently includes the following map layers and information: (1) TIGER (Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoded Reference) roads, including federal state highways, federal roads, state highways, local arterials and neighbourhood serving roads; (2) TIGER census tracts, 1990; (3) TIGER city boundaries; (4) TIGER hydrology; (5) other TIGER features including railroads and airports; (6) spheres of influence; (7) slope polygons; (8) highway buffers; (9) urban buffers; (10) earthquake faults; (11) prime agricultural lands; (12) marsh and wetlands; and (13) sewer and water utility service costs. The paper concludes with an agenda for further model development.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Pion Limited

    207 Brondesburg Park
    London NW2 5JN,   England 
  • Authors:
    • Landis, J D
  • Publication Date: 1994


  • English

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00668158
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: Nov 2 1994 12:00AM