DYNAMIC ESTIMATION OF ORIGIN-DESTINATION PATTERNS IN FREEWAYS. FINAL REPORT

Any proposed traffic management action is essentially a forecast that the action will result in certain traffic conditions, but uncertainty concerning the amount and distribution of traffic demand will introduce random error between what is expected and what actually occurs. This report treats the problem of forecasting whether or not a given set of freeway on-ramp volumes are likely to cause over-capacity demand at some point in the freeway mainline. The main source of uncertainty in these forecasts concerns the freeway's origin-destination matrix, and four different methods for estimating this matrix from loop detector data are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Only the method which explicitly modeled freeway traffic flow produced reasonably unbiased and efficient estimates, and it was concluded that successful estimation must be coupled with a good model of freeway traffic flow.

  • Corporate Authors:

    University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

    Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering, 122 Civil and Mineral Engineering Building
    Minneapolis, MN  United States  55455-0220

    Minnesota Department of Transportation

    Office of Research Administration, 117 University Avenue
    St Paul, MN  United States  55155
  • Authors:
    • Davis, G A
  • Publication Date: 1994-5

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 48 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00667655
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: MN/RC-94/18
  • Contract Numbers: Mn/DOT 68092 TOC 63
  • Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
  • Created Date: Oct 13 1994 12:00AM