This paper presents basic principles for the forecasting of ocean trade movements. These methods include trend extrapolation, in-depth economic analysis, input-output analysis, and methods based primarily on the judgment of experts. The strengths and weaknesses of each in terms of accuracy, cost, time, and data required are discussed and data sources for the preparation of trade forecasts are given. Two examples are presented: twenty-five year forecasts of U.S. wheat exports, and imports of bauxite and alumina. These forecasts were used for fleet planning.
- Presented at Spring Meeting of SNAME, Williamsburg, Va.
Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers601 Pavonia Avenue
Jersey City, NJ United States 07306-2907
- Wing, J F
- Hillman, J F
- Publication Date: 1972-5
- Features: References;
- Pagination: 15 p.
- TRT Terms: Economic analysis; Economic forecasting; Exports; Forecasting; Imports; International trade; Trade
- Old TRIS Terms: Trade forecasts
- Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Economics; Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Railroads;
- Accession Number: 00032698
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Apr 21 1974 12:00AM