COMPARISON OF THE MODEL STRUCTURE AND PREDICTIVE POWER OF AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE MODELS OF INTERCITY MODE CHOICE

This paper reports the construction of both disaggregate and aggregate models of intercity mode choice; data from the Edinburgh-Glasgow Area Modal-Split Study were used. The models are then compared in terms of their structure (i.e., the variables included) and their ability to predict modal split. The disaggregate models provide a better statistical explanation of mode-choice behavior. Moreover, the failure of the variable representing relative travel time to reach a satisfactory level of statistical significance in the aggregate models indicates that the alleged behavioral nature of aggregate models is not supported by the empirical evidence. In addition, the predictions of modal split derived from the aggregate models are inferior to those obtained from the disaggregate models. Several tests show that the errors associated with the aggregate models are several times as large as those associated with the disaggregate models. Disaggregate models have extremely desirable performance characteristics. It is, therefore, time to make serious effort to incorporate them into the transportation planning process.

• Digital Copy:
  • Purchase a digital copy of this publication for $25 USD
• Summary URL:
  http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=COMPARISON+OF+THE+MODEL+STRUCTURE+AND+PREDICTIVE+POWER+OF+AGGREGATE+AND+DISAGGREGATE+MODELS+OF+INTERCITY+MODE+CHOICE&author=P.+Watson&publication_year=1974
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Watson, Peter L
• Conference:
  • 53rd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1974-1-21 to 1974-1-25
• Publication Date: 1974

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 59-65
• Monograph Title: TRAVEL BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 527
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Alternatives analysis; Behavior; Cluster analysis; Disaggregate analysis; Forecasting; Intercity transportation; Mathematical models; Modal split; Mode choice; Performance; Travel time; Variables
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Behavioral objectives; Disaggregate models; Modal selection
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00097406
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309023742
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Aug 13 1975 12:00AM