COMPARISON OF THE MODEL STRUCTURE AND PREDICTIVE POWER OF AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE MODELS OF INTERCITY MODE CHOICE

This paper reports the construction of both disaggregate and aggregate models of intercity mode choice; data from the Edinburgh-Glasgow Area Modal-Split Study were used. The models are then compared in terms of their structure (i.e., the variables included) and their ability to predict modal split. The disaggregate models provide a better statistical explanation of mode-choice behavior. Moreover, the failure of the variable representing relative travel time to reach a satisfactory level of statistical significance in the aggregate models indicates that the alleged behavioral nature of aggregate models is not supported by the empirical evidence. In addition, the predictions of modal split derived from the aggregate models are inferior to those obtained from the disaggregate models. Several tests show that the errors associated with the aggregate models are several times as large as those associated with the disaggregate models. Disaggregate models have extremely desirable performance characteristics. It is, therefore, time to make serious effort to incorporate them into the transportation planning process.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 59-65
  • Monograph Title: TRAVEL BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00097406
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309023742
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Aug 13 1975 12:00AM