THE HAZARD IN USING PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

This article explains how a large body of evidence shows seismic probability theory to be defective for estimating earthquakes greater than magnitude 5.0 on the Richter scale. To be useful in engineering, earthquake hazard assessment must focus narrowly in both time and space. The article describes how probability is predicted, and that microzoning for sensitive local conditions is mostly not accommodated. Probabilistic analyses fail partly because complexities in fault mechanisms produce inhomogeneities in the earthquake process that make b-lines defective, and partly because damaging earthquakes that stastistically may occur in a region cannot be pinned down in either time or space.

Language

  • English

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00639131
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Nov 22 1996 12:00AM