EVALUATING THE SENSITIVITY OF TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS TO LAND USE INPUT ERRORS

The sensitivity of the urban transportation planning process (UTPP) to differences (or errors) in socioeconomic input is examined using the Dallas-Fort Worth area as a case study. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the final output of the UTPP, link volumes, is sensitive to errors in the district-level forecasting of population and employment. Planners undertaking corridor-level studies should be most concerned about the reliability and accuracy of district-level socioeconomic forecasts, particularly for districts directly served by the corridor. Because local transportation facilities are most sensitive to errors in zone level inputs, site-specific studies may be severely affected by data errors at the traffic zone level. Greater attention should be paid to suburban areas where the potential for introducing large input errors is high. Because of the potential for large assignment errors, expansion of a district-to-district trip table to a zone-to-zone trip table should be avoided. Travel demand models must be applied using traffic zone-level data, not district-level data.

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 21-29
  • Monograph Title: Travel demand forecasting: new methodologies and travel behavior research, 1991
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00622239
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309051614
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: May 31 1996 12:00AM