MODELLING THE DYNAMICS OF CAR OWNERSHIP AND USE: A METHODOLOGICAL AND EMPIRICAL SYNTHESIS . TRAVEL BEHAVIOR RESEARCH. 5TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR

This paper presents a study arising from the development of a dynamic microeconomic mathematical model of the household sector's car ownership and use, and vehicle type choice. An approach is emphasised that is theoretically consistent, methodologically sound, computationally tractable, and applicable to many policy and scenario planning situations. The selection of the final set of influences on variable choice have been guided by economic theory and by the potential to obtain relevant data. The extensions of static discrete and continuous choice models to a dynamic context confirms the important role of expectations and experiences in the overall explanation of choice. From 1981 to 1986, empirical studies of dynamic vehicle ownership and use were made by questioning and interviewing a four-wave panel of households in Sydney, Australia. As a result, a detailed set of empirical models is now available, which can provide guidance on several 'what if' questions about changes or lack of changes in: (1) financial tools (e.g., sales taxes and vehicle manufacturing cost); (2) vehicle technology (e.g., reduced fuel consumption and vehicle weight); (3) passenger and load carrying capacity; (4) the socio-demographic composition of the population (e.g., household size, income, number of workers, life cycle, work location). (TRRL)

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Gower Publishing

    Brookfield, VT  United States 
  • Authors:
    • Hensher, D A
    • Barnard, P O
    • Smith, N C
    • Milthorpe, F W
  • Publication Date: 1989

Language

  • English

Media Info

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00612399
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
  • ISBN: 0-566-07062-6
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 31 1991 12:00AM