POINT OF VIEW: URBAN RAIL TRANSIT SYSTEMS. LET'S MAKE FORECAST AND ACTUAL COMPARISONS FAIR

This article discusses why the Urban Mass Transportation Administration report "Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Costs" (1989) fails in its attempt to critique rail modeling and forecasting methods with the goal of improving them. The Portland Project is used to illustrate how the report targeted early, outdated documents for criticism and ignored the actual decision matrices of local decision makers, and compounded the misrepresentation by the choice of inappropriate comparison years. It is shown how the use of readily available data on boardings and operating costs for the various projects, instead of reconfigured data, would have warranted different conclusions from those expressed in the UMTA report. In conclusion, the author calls for a return to dialogue by those who are in disagreement over the presentation and interpretation of data on urban rail transit.

Media Info

  • Features: Photos; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 6-9
  • Serial:
    • TR News
    • Issue Number: 156
    • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
    • ISSN: 0738-6826
  • Publication flags:

    Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00616511
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Nov 30 1991 12:00AM