LONG TERM FORECASTS OF DEMAND FOR CARS, SELECTED CONSUMER DURABLES, AND ENERGY. SECTION 1 CARS

The article reviews the performance of two models in predicting the long term demand for cars. One model explained annual changes in car stock in terms of changes of real personal disposable income, a time trend and the previous year's level of stock. The other model used real personal disposable income, relative new car prices, a time trend, hire purchase contract length, a supply factor and the previous year's new registrations. Tables are given to compare the forecasts with the actual numbers, and reasons for differences are discussed. These results are used to examine trends and give long term forecasts using a revised model. Forecasts were made of supplies to world markets, and an attempt was made to predict the U.K.'s share in each market. Predicted demand is compared with recorded numbers for the years 1961 to 1965 and market trends are used to make a forecast for 1970. It is suggested that the pattern of world trade in cars is greatly influenced by administrative decisions of large American companies. /TRRL/

  • Corporate Authors:

    National Institute of Economic and Social Research

    2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square
    London SW1,   England 
  • Authors:
    • O'Flaherty
    • William, G
  • Publication Date: 1967-5

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 35-44
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00127808
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 3 1975 12:00AM