TRANSPORTATION DEMAND FORECASTING

This article examines the development of transportation demand forecasting theory and methodology, which have appeared as a result of increasing demand for qualitative improvements to transport. For example, demands for more comprehensive and comfortable transport services have arisen from changes in life styles and personal values. The previously used four-step forecasting model, based on person-trip surveys, has been found to have only limited ability to measure the effectiveness of highly specific transport policies such as transportation management schemes; their use has led to several problems. In response to the need for new types of models for these schemes, the disaggregate behavioural model emerged, which uses each individual trip as a unit of analysis. This model has the following advantages: (1) theoretical excellence; (2) ability to include more policy-sensitive variables; (3) lower requirements for data; (4) spatial transferability, so that models developed for one geographical area can easily be applied elsewhere. There has also been increasing use of the activity-based approach, where activity serves as the conceptual basis for transport research and the trip is regarded as a form of demand derived from activity; it is assumed that individual travel behaviour is affected by household constraints as well as space and time constraints.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Toyota Motor Corporation

    International Public Affairs Dept, 1-4-18, Koraku
    Tokyo 112,   Japan 
  • Authors:
    • SUGIE, YORIYASU
  • Publication Date: 1990

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: p. 3-9
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00606615
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 31 1991 12:00AM