SEABORNE TRADE IN NATURAL GAS UP TO 1985: A ROLE FOR LCF?
The purpose of this report is to define the cargo prospects for natural gas and then to examine the economic viability of LCF transport, which has recently been proposed as alternative to the established use of LNG tankers. The scope for the expansion of natural gas consumption is examined and related to available supplies in the consuming regions, thereby identifying potential gas imports. The most important constraint on the expansion of gas trading is the availability of supplies. This report assesses the prospects for exports from the world's major gas producing countries, in some cases likely to be much lower than official estimates have suggested. However, this trade is set for a period of sustained growth despite the enorous cost of establishing LNG schemes and the political problems which often delay them. The forecasts for United States Imports illustrate that the expansion will still be extremely rapid, from 1.0 billion cubic metres of gas in 1975, to 51.0 billion in 1980 and 87.0 in 1985. The conclusions of the first part of the report are conveniently summarized into trade matrices of the movements between importing and exporting areas of the world for the years 1975, 1980 and 1985. The second part of the report deals with the question of transporting the gas in the form of liquid chemical fuel (methanol) rather than Liquefying it and transporting it in expensive LNG tankers. Although the conversion to LCF is more expensive than liquefaction the resultant fuel can be transported in virtually standard tankers, thereby offering much lower shipping costs. Over longer distances this saving can more than offset the higher shoreward costs, as cost analysis of two major routes in the future from the Persian Gulf reveals. In conclusion, the relative advantages of the two systems are summarized and related to the future trades examined in the first part of the report.
- Publication Date: 1974-11
- Pagination: 43 p.
- TRT Terms: Analysis; Economic forecasting; Forecasting; Freight traffic; Freight transportation; Liquefied natural gas; Methanol; Studies; Tankers; Trade; Trade routes; Trend (Statistics)
- Old TRIS Terms: Lng forecasts; Lng transportation; Methanol tankers; Trade forecasts; Trade route studies; Traffic analysis (Freight)
- Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Economics; Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation;
- Accession Number: 00095184
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: Westinform Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: No. 305 Report
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: May 29 1975 12:00AM