AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY. PART I - PRESENT AVIATION FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES. U.S. AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS METHODOLOGY

The author presented the key steps used in preparing Boeing's market forecasts which start with economic conditions on a global basis and end up with product forecast by type of aircraft, capacity needs, and available lift. He stated that it was important (a) to be explicit in the identification of key assumptions, (b) to use variations of judgmental assumptions to test their sensitivity, (c) to assess constraints, such as airport congestion, that affect demand, (d) to consider the financial health of the airlines and the manufacturing industry, and (e) to be as realistic as possible knowing that to err on the side of excessive conservatism or on the side of excessive optimism presents equal dangers. He indicated that the long-term nature of Boeing's forecasts (15 to 20 years) and the significant investments necessary to support new aircraft warrant careful review by many managers within the firm.

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  • Accession Number: 00494548
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: May 31 1990 12:00AM