TRANSPORT DEMAND MODEL ESTIMATION FROM TRAFFIC COUNTS

Many problems in transport planning and management tasks require an origin-destination (O-D) matrix to represent the travel pattern. However, O-D matrices obtained through a large scale survey such as home or roadside interviews, tend to be costly, labour intensive and time disruptive to trip makers. Therefore, the use of low cost and easily available data is particularly attractive. The need of low-cost methods to estimate current and future O-D matrices is even more valuable in developing countries because of the rapid changes in population, economic activity and land use. Models of transport demand have been used for many years to synthesize O-D matrices in study areas. A typical example of this is the gravity model; its functional form, plus the appropriate values for the parameters involved, is employed to produce acceptable matrices representing trip making behaviour for many trip purposes and time periods. The work reported in this paper has combined the advantages of acceptable travel demand models with the low cost and availability of traffic counts. Three types of demand models have been used: gravity (GR), opportunity (OP) and gravity-opportunity (GO) models. Three estimation methods have been developed to calibrate these models from traffic counts, namely: non-linear-least-squares (NLLS), weighted-non-linear-least-squares (WNLLS) and maximum-likelihood (ML). The 1978 Ripon (urban vehicle movement) survey was used to test these methods. They were found to perform satisfactorily since each calibrated model reproduced the observed O-D matrix fairly closely. The tests were carried out using two assignment techniques, all-or-nothing and the stochastic method due to Burrell, in determining the routes taken through the network.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00494488
• Corporate Authors:

  Martinus Nijhoff Publishers

  Kluwer Academic Pub Group, Distribution Center, P.O. Box 322
  3300 AH Dordrecht,   Netherlands 
• Authors:
  • TAMIN, O Z
  • WILLUMSEN, L G
• Publication Date: 1989

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 3-26
• Serial:
  • Transportation (Netherlands)
  • Volume: 16
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers
  • ISSN: 0049-4488

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Estimating; Gravity models; Mathematical models; Matrices (Mathematics); Origin and destination; Traffic counts; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Low costs
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00490895
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jan 31 1990 12:00AM