TOWARD A RAIL TOFC/COFC DEMAND MODEL

TOFC/COFC is one of the few rail growth markets, increasing nearly 160% between 1967 and 1987. The goals of the paper are to (1) specify a rail TOFC/COFC demand model and, (2) measure the impact of the 1981 TOFC/COFC regulation exemption on TOFC/COFC rail carloadings. The first goal is achieved by estimation of a macro type, time series regression model in which total U.S. rail TOFC/COFC carloadings are made a function of (a) consumption of durable goods by the adult population, (b) rail prices/motor carrier prices, (c) motor carrier service/rail service, and (d) prime interest rate. The second goal is achieved by adding a dummy variable to the regression model, which measures the impact of TOFC/COFC deregulation during the 1982-1984 period. The empirical results of the model are encouraging. The independent variables have the correct signs and are statistically significant. The model has a good fit. The paper discusses equipment innovations that have increased the demand for TOFC/COFC service. Data documenting the growth of double stack service and some of the reasons for expansion are also included.

• Record URL:
  https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001070572/Home
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: https://www.library.northwestern.edu/find-borrow-request/requests-interlibrary-loan/lending-institutions.html
• Authors:
  • Babcock, M W
  • German, H W
• Publication Date: 1989

Media Info

• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 202-209
• Serial:
  • Journal of the Transportation Research Forum
  • Volume: 30
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Forum
  • ISSN: 1046-1469
  • Serial URL: https://trforum.org/journal-of-the-trf/
• Publication flags:

  Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Container cars; Container on flat car; Demand; Deregulation; Doublestack service; Equipment; Impact studies; Innovation; Markets; Mathematical models; Railroad cars by type; Regression analysis; Time series analysis; Trailer on flat car; Urban growth
• Uncontrolled Terms: Double stack container cars
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Railroads; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00490029
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 31 1989 12:00AM